We hit the jackpot last week, with all five picks cashing in at 23/1.
Let’s see if we can do the same this week, where we focus on five teams to cover the minus handicap…
(2021 Predictions W-L-D: 19-15-1 54%)
Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5) – 17:00
I went against the Falcons last week but despite their win, we snuck through the backdoor with Miami covering by half a point.
Whisper it quietly, but the Falcons offense might just be starting to hum – they’ve scored 25 or more points in four of their last five games and have a top ten passing offense in yards per game.
Kyle Pitts is starting to look like the Tight End many thought he could be, going at number four in this year’s draft.
Carolina’s defense might be keeping them in games at present but this pick is more on their offense, which is looking BAD.
When a newly signed QB is getting benched in the fourth quarter for PJ Walker after six and a half games, things are getting desperate.
Christian McCaffrey isn’t returning any time soon and despite Chuba Hubbard running the same playbook according to Matt Rhule, they are averaging just 100 yards of rushing a game.
It’s a tough divisional road trip for Carolina and I fancy the Falcons to go over .500 and just starting wondering if they can make a run at a wildcard spot.
Prediction: Panthers 20 Falcons 27 (Falcons -2.5)
Dolphins @ Bills (-13.5) – 17:00
I tend to avoid big spreads but this feels too good to miss: You get the Bills, who are probably the best team in Football (definitely the best team in the AFC), coming off a bye week, at home, against the worst defense in the league (415 yards per game conceded).
It’s going to be cold, wet and windy in Buffalo, and the Dolphins aren’t exactly used to that.
Back-to-back last second field goal losses have sucked whatever life there was out of Miami’s season and owner Stephen Ross has already been rumoured to be looking at another blow up and rebuild, possibly with Deshaun Watson.
When you consider that the only other home team with a double digit spread this week is the suddenly hapless Chiefs, this starts to appeal more and more.
The Bills are 6-0 in the last six years coming off a bye, and they’ve beaten Miami on the last four occasions. I’m no hero, but out of these five picks, I’d be locking this one up.
Prediction: Dolphins 7 Bills 31 (Bills -13.5)
Titans (-1.0) @ Colts – 17:00
It was a real gut check win from the Colts on Sunday night, who had every excuse to lay an egg against the 49ers.
It’s back to divisional matters on Sunday and there’s every chance that they beat the Titans, who will be coming off an emotional high after mauling the Chiefs.
Indy have a +9 turnover differential, the second best in the league. That means that they’re taking the ball off teams, and they’re not giving it back.
Carson Wentz is quietly getting back to something like his Eagles form: Just short of a 100 passer rating and only one interception in seven starts.
They are at home and traditionally in the NFL, it’s said that the home team get a three point cushion against an equal opponent.
The fact that they’re a point underdogs makes them appealing, in a close game that they win to blow the AFC South race wide open.
Prediction: Titans 28 Colts 30 (Colts +1)
Patriots @ Chargers (-5.5) – 20:05
The Patriots might be feeling good about themselves but they only beat a truly awful Jets team.
This is a much sterner test and you’ve got another team here going coast to coast against a good team coming off a bye week.
Bill Belichick terrorises young QB’s but if it’s not already clear to anyone, Justin Herbert is on a different level.
He’s comfortably top ten for passing yards a game, and is backed up by a defense that is playing clean and tidy.
They are top ten in fewest defensive penalties allowed and penalty yards allowed, meaning that the sophomore is not being asked to do too much in tight spots.
With Mac Jones slowly building up stats of his own this could be a semi-surprising shootout. But ultimately I like the Chargers to pull away late on and win by a score or more.
Prediction: Patriots 28 Chargers 34 (Chargers -5.5)
Buccaneers (-4.5) @ Saints – 20:25
It seems a lifetime ago that the Saints had a very New-Orleans like voodoo curse on the Bucs: Winning on Tom Brady’s Tampa debut before pummelling them 38-3 in primetime.
Nowadays though they have to contend with a team that is currently running up on teams without breaking sweat.
Even without Antonio Brown and most of their secondary, they breezed past the Bears by the same score as their embarrassment in the last paragraph.
Leading the league in passing, passing yards per game and total points, it’s starting to be a real statement of intent by the defending champs.
That’s not exactly what the Saints would want to hear: Before Monday’s paltry performance by Seattle’s Geno Smith, they were allowing an average of 275 passing yards per game, seventh worst in the league.
It’s a short week for New Orleans who have to go cross country. In my opinion the only reason the line is so short here is allowing for last season’s shenanigans between these two.
But this is a different Buccaneers nowadays, and they win comfortably to put more daylight between themselves and the rest in the NFC South.
Prediction: Saints 24 Buccaneers 38 (Buccaneers -4.5)
NFL free bets and sign up offers
Paddy Power: £20 risk free bet – CLAIM HERE
£20 Risk Free: New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using Cards or Apple Pay will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply. Paddy’s Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. T&Cs apply. 18+ Begambleaware.org
Betfair: Bet £5 get £20 in free accas – CLAIM HERE
Min stake £5, min odds 2.0. Only deposits made using Cards or ApplePay will qualify. Free bets are awarded after the qualifying bet has settled, valid for 30 days, and must be used on multiples with 3+ legs. Max £20 in free bets. T&Cs apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.Org
William Hill: Bet 10 Get 40 – CLAIM HERE
18+. Play Safe. New customers using promo code M40 only. 1x per customer. Min £/€10 bet. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Free bets of 2 x £/€15 issued after first qualifying bet settles. Max £/€10 Bonus. 35x wagering requirement. Max redeemable bonus: £25. Casino bonus expires after 72 hours. UK & Eire only. Additional T&Cs, including free-bet, game, location, payment method and stake contributions apply. Begambleaware.org
BoyleSports: Bet £10 get £30 (Mobile only) – CLAIM HERE
New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.Org
Sky Bet: Bet £10 Get £40 – CLAIM HERE
NEW CUSTOMERS ONLY. FIRST SINGLE & E/W BET ONLY. ODDS OF 1/1 OR GREATER. 4 X £10 BET TOKEN. FREE BET STAKES NOT INCLUDED IN RETURNS. FREE BETS FOR HORSE RACING & FOOTBALL ONLY. FREE BETS ARE NON WITHDRAWABLE. NO FREE BET EXPIRY. ELIGIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FURTHER T&CS APPLY. 18+. BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG.
Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is someone who:
- Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
- Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
- Never chase their losses
- Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed
- Gamcare – www.gamcare.org.uk
- Gamble Aware – www.begambleaware.org
For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to www.gamstop.co.uk to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites.
Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to The Sun. 18+. T&Cs apply. Begambleaware.org